The North Sea as Europe’s Energy Backbone
The Way Ahead for Offshore Wind
14 January 2026
Authors: Rosa Melissa Gehrung, Sabrina Schulz
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The North Sea as Europe’s Energy Backbone outlines policy recommendations to secure the large-scale deployment of offshore wind in the North Sea, including bankable de-risked investment frameworks, integrated cross-border maritime grid planning, and strengthened public-private cooperation to protect critical offshore energy infrastructure.
The North Sea is a vital shared resource for Europe’s energy future. By 2050, it is expected to generate approximately 70% of Europe’s offshore wind capacity. This is essential for meeting Europe’s need for affordable, clean, and secure energy while fostering economic growth. Following the Esbjerg (2022) and Ostend (2023) Declarations, the North Sea countries and neighbouring states have committed to building around 120 GW of offshore wind by 2030 and at least 300 GW by 2050 in the greater ‘North Seas’ area, up from an earlier pledge of 65/150 GW from the North Sea alone. In the 2025 Kensington Treaty, Germany and the United Kingdom (UK) committed to jointly harnessing the potential of renewable energy in the North Sea. These ambitious goals are, however, at risk as factors beyond and within governments’ control threaten to undermine the business case for offshore wind in Europe. Rising raw-material prices and supply-chain bottlenecks for key components such as foundations, towers, turbines, and specialised offshore installation vessels have increased costs across the entire value chain. Higher interest rates have further elevated total project costs and undermined the bankability of new projects.
Combined with outdated auction designs, these factors have negatively impacted the investment pipeline with auctions failing or underperforming in Germany, the UK, France, the Netherlands and Denmark. As of mid-2025, only approximately 30 GW6 of capacity had been installed in the North Seas. With a planned capacity of roughly 60 GW by 2030, this leaves deployment only halfway to the stated goal. Meanwhile, hybrid threats in the North Sea are stressing the business case for offshore wind. Covert mapping and surveillance by unfriendly foreign state vessels and drones, sabotage of subsea power cables and substations, and cyberattacks on control and monitoring systems pose challenges to the safe operation of offshore infrastructure. Despite the decentralised nature of offshore wind, the high concentration of interconnected assets in the North Sea can generate cascading effects across facilities. This paper offers policy recommendations to address these challenges and keep offshore wind development goals on track, and to inform discussions ahead of the North Sea Summit in January 2026. Its content and recommendations reflect expert-level discussions in a series of roundtables held in cooperation with the British Embassy in Berlin and the German Council on Foreign Relations, expert interviews, and EIES’ report ‘Against the Headwinds: Securing Europe’s Wind Sector.’ A broad representation of policy, energy and security stakeholders ensured comprehensive coverage of the issues at stake. These consultations produced three key insights: First, offshore wind needs a bankable investment framework that reduces project risks and costs. Second, integrated regional planning is essential to achieve operational efficiencies and enhance regional security. Third, robust cross-border public-private cooperation is necessary to enhance joint situational awareness and strengthen response capabilities.
Download the full paper here.