Liquidating the Russian Petrostate

29 January 2026

Author: Dr Thomas O’Donnell, PhD; edited by EIES

In this independent brief produced for EIES, Dr O’Donnell finds that sanctions and tariffs, combined with air attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and shipping, could devastate the economic engine of Putin's war on Ukraine – if the US and EU are willing to apply further pressure.

Key insights include:

• The combined impact of sanctions and drone/missile attacks now exceeds the "oil price cap" strategy

• Russia's oil system is stressed to capacity, limiting the Kremlin's ability to resist this campaign directly

• Recent developments have created a historically optimal window to remove Russian barrels from the market without a significant price shock

The window of opportunity is now. For Western policymakers, this presents an opportunity to utilise existing economic and foreign policy tools and, if necessary, create new ones, to liquidate the Russian petrostate.

Download the full brief here.