Russia’s Petrostate: Expert panel calls for coordinated Western action to exploit unprecedented opportunity to cripple Russian oil revenues

Brussels, 12.11.2025 – It won't be easy, but for the first time, there is a realistic path to shutting down the energy export machine that sustains Russia's brutal and illegal war against Ukraine. This was the message from the panellists at the EIES webinar, "Dismantling the Petrostate - Moment of Truth for Russian Oil?"  

This will be a complex process, experts acknowledged - diplomatically, politically, and in the global marketplace. But with global oil supplies up, market conditions have never been more favourable. Meanwhile, Russia is already suffering from the cumulative impact of earlier sanctions, and recent decisions from Washington and Brussels point to a more robust approach.  

“There could never be a better situation to take Russian oil off the market than now,” said Dr. Thomas O’Donnell, Founder, Global Barrel. “We have to dismantle the petrostate by squeezing Russian exports,” said Dr. Jaak Aaviksoo, former Minister of Defence of Estonia and member of the European Security Leadership Council-Europe. 

One major variable is China, which has consistently undermined Western sanctions, importing approximately 20% of its crude imports from Russia on the way to becoming Moscow's largest customer. “The key to further global action is China,” said Christof Rühl, Senior Research Scholar, Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy.  

Success will depend on Europe’s willingness to take decisive action to target Russian oil exports and on how Washington follows up on its recent moves against Rosneft and Lukoil, for example through secondary sanctions and pressure on Russia’s ghost fleet, panellists agreed. But Dr. Aaviksoo, who has observed Russia’s energy weapon up close and admits his disappointment at the reluctance to date to deploy the toughest energy sanctions, said he is “cautiously optimistic.” 

About EIES 

The European Initiative for Energy Security (EIES) advocates for secure pan-European and national energy policies, dedicated to fostering collaboration between government and industry leaders. EIES seeks to address critical energy challenges and champion comprehensive solutions for the benefit of Europe's energy security, transition, and industrial competitiveness. EIES works with the Energy Security Leadership Council-Europe (ESLC-Europe), composed of retired military, former political and active business figures, to achieve these goals. 

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Isabelle Dupraz , Deputy Director | EIES  

p: idupraz@secureenergy.org | +44 7808 580505 | London, UK