Critical Raw Materials: Nato’s Alternative Futures
25 May 2023
Author: EIES & SAFE
The unfolding energy crisis in Europe requires balancing energy security with climate, economic, and national security goals at national, EU and NATO levels. Europe needs secure, critical raw materials supply chains to build a domestic industrial base capable of producing strategic technologies.
The unfolding energy crisis in Europe requires balancing energy security with climate, economic, and national security goals at national, EU and NATO levels. The current political climate with rising populism, together with the energy crisis and Russian aggression in Ukraine, makes it urgent to find solutions to address 1) European energy security, particularly the mid-transition years; 2) diversifying energy sources; 3) ending dependencies on unfriendly and authoritarian trading partners and non-secure supply chains that do not represent our values, ideals, and environmental standards; and 4) accelerating the green transition.
The lessons of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are heightened by growing awareness of a more assertive government in Beijing that exerts a controlling influence over the green revolution’s supply chain for critical raw materials, clean energy technology, and manufacturing. In addition, oil remains the bedrock of authoritarian states in Europe’s neighbourhood. The oil embargo and shift away from Russian oil offer a chance to highlight the economic and security impacts of Europe’s continued oil dependence.
This is a moment when the public and policymakers are keenly focused on these issues, providing a window of opportunity in response to the need. Far from being derailed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU has responded forcefully and doubled down on ending dependence on Russian oil and gas and accelerating the green transition.1 Combine that with the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and growing cleantech competition from the U.S., and Europe is now flexing every policy towards transforming its economy.2
Consensus among politicians is stronger than ever before, but it is not unanimous, and populist cracks are emerging. A key challenge is how to bridge political goals and real-world transformation. What is needed is a new “energy realism” that brings realism to the debate on energy transition towards a low-carbon economy, especially in the mid-transition years, enabling a sincere dialogue on the difficult trade-offs and tough decisions that will need to be made.
To remain on track for the transition Europe needs to build the domestic industrial base to produce and deploy the green infrastructure of batteries, solar panels, wind turbines and grid while also implementing guardrails to ensure that mining, processing, and construction of energy infrastructure are done with the highest standards possible. In addition, it is essential that the public remains supportive which will require controlling energy costs and inflation in the mid-transition while ensuring industrial competitiveness and job creation.